I hadn’t even noticed how small that sample size was. 474 is a tiny ass study. This kind of poll should have been conducted with far more participants if it wanted to be taken more seriously. At least 1000. It’s an online pollster, so it’s not like it’d be impossible to get that many.
I definitely agree with that. We can argue about whether Harris would have benefited from saying she’d stop arms being sent to Israel, but to say it wouldn’t have hurt her as well is ignoring how much of the public supports Israel. There’s also a lot of people on the left who would have simultaneously said they’re glad she supports stopping arms sales to Israel and yet still find some other reason not to vote for her. The decision on which way for the campaign to go on the Palestinian genocide isn’t as easy or clear cut as many seem to think.
That’s a massive stretch with 0 evidence to support it so is just speculation. Not literally impossible, but multiple new orgs saying 19 million without that evidence is fucking weird.
Fair. But I also never said anything about it invalidating the poll.
Yes yes i do edits: i do want to say though it’s not just this one article mentioning the 19 million, each article about this poll has mentioned it.
That’s what I’m saying about the 19 million figure. But the articles second paragraph is this
A YouGov poll backed by the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project and released on Wednesday showed that among the 19 million people who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 but did not vote in 2024, nearly a third named Israel’s U.S.-backed war on Gaza as a top reason for staying home.
My point is that that 19 million figure makes no sense/has no evidence to support it and isn’t mentioned anywhere in the poll.
Yes an edit: Also that’s a good point about the battleground state stats, thanks for pointing it out. I know Gaza had an impact, its just interesting seeing how much of an impact it actually had, which other polls show as much lower. Again, different polls, different methodologies, and different ways of getting the poll participants with Yougov doing purely online polls.
No, I know that, but that still doesn’t provide evidence for what the article states, that 19 million people who voted for Biden stayed home. That’s my problem because there is no evidence for that figure.
Another article that uses the same poll that says 19 million people who voted for Biden didn’t vote despite not having any sources for that number. The Harris and Biden vote difference was under 6 million. 19 million is multiplying that times around 3.
Edit: I also find it interesting that so many of the polls we have had about the reasons people didn’t vote for Harris have different reasons. Some say Inflation, this one says Gaza. Just interesting how different polls can be conducted. This one was also backed by the Institute for Middle East Understanding so, while I don’t think they necessarily rigged it, I am not surprised that a poll backed by a Middle East organization showed support for Gaza was a deciding reason for a lot of voters. Regardless, Gaza had some impact that can’t be disregarded.
Second edit: to be clear, I’m not saying the poll says 19 million, I’m saying the article does with no evidence. I’m keeping the original wording and correcting it in this edit for clarities sake.
Harris got 75 million, Biden got 81million. That’s a 6 million difference and there were people who switched to Trump so not all of those 6 million sat out. Them saying 19 million shows they are not the best site to represent this data. I’m not saying I disagree with the data, just that saying 19 million sat out is a terribly way to start.
I’d also be really interested to see a study that both does something like this one, asking non Harris voters what would have convinced them to vote for her, but also if Harris coming out in support of ending support for Israel as long as the genocide continues would have made any of her voters not vote for her. Just to understand what she might have been gaining and losing by changing her position.
I read the poll when I read the article, it never shows where the get the 19 million number. Even when I ctrl+f and search for million, it only talks about the rights of millions of Palestinians. Never talks about where they got the 19 million.
19 million? Where are they getting those numbers?
I’ve seen a lot of my fellow trans folk say the Democrats were going to support this. That Democrats are going to throw us under the bus and let our rights be taken away, supporting it even. Yet here we are with an actual vote on the direct subject of Trans folks’ existence and whether we can participate in sports and only 2 Dems voted for it. 1 voted present. The vast majority of the Democratic party supports trans rights and will vote against shit like this.
When it comes to the military budget last year, which had the transphobic rider, a budget was on the line, they voted for the budget because of how important that was, regardless of how that was incredibly misguided.
Democrats still vastly support trans people.
There were 3 that I found but apparently, when i looked them back up for this comment, two were written by the same person on different news sites so may as well be the same article so you’re right, there aren’t a many articles about it, although i wouldnt be surprised if more are written over the next few days.
And if they’re just copying the IMEU press release then that brings into question where are they getting that 19 million figure? Moves the issue from the news organizations to the IMEU, which is probably worse than just a news org being wrong.