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Cake day: November 7th, 2024

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  • Also these 27 countries have varying levels of dependence and relations with the US, making a unified stance more difficult to arrive at, to call some examples

    • Poland imports most of its weapons from the U.S. so they depend on good relations for national security and spare parts
    • Germans largest trading partner: the U.S. The economy depends on exports, and needs to do everything to get the Tariffs down. Norway is a similar boat, their government funds are invested in big tech.
    • meanwhile France has maintained some level of strategic independence
    • Spain and Portugal might even benefit from this, due to their better relation with South American countries and free trade there becomes vital. + potential for growth

    Also they consider they have still a competitive advantage over China, since their tariffs are only 20% while these on China are 54%, so action is less urgent.



  • A problem I see with these collapse predictions is that they see the US as existing in a vacuum. There are external forces interested in the united states future.

    • China
    • Europe
    • Russia
    • Japan & South Korea (yes I think they have quite some influence)

    From these Europe and Japan & South Korea are interested in keeping the American state stable enough as a counterbalance to the other 2. Russia is interested in Trumps and his likes stay viewing his effect on NATO, China likes Trump not as much, as the tariffs hurt the worlds biggest export nation the most.

    I would go as far as saying Russia needs the Trumpian united states as a counterbalance to China as well. As Chinas economic scale and population still dwarf the Russian one.

    East Asia and India in general will depend on the US as a Petrol state in the future, supplying vital fossil fuel imports for plastic- and chemical industries.

    These external power centers are the deciding factors should the US become unstable.