It’s not just made up. People placing bets are looking at the voting histories of the precincts with outstanding votes. A 4% chance is not a ~0% chance, so they haven’t called it. But neither is it a 50% chance.
No they aren’t, their gamblers. They are gambling. Don’t pretend they are making an informed decision. Maybe there are some who think they can data themselves into getting rich, but the vast majority, at best, read one article from a news source they like and take it as gospel.
Just look up some of the giant “failed” predictions these markets have had. That should make it pretty clear they aren’t some sort of a source of truth, at best they are ways for insiders to exploit insider knowledge to make a buck on longshot odds.
It’s not just made up. People placing bets are looking at the voting histories of the precincts with outstanding votes. A 4% chance is not a ~0% chance, so they haven’t called it. But neither is it a 50% chance.
No they aren’t, their gamblers. They are gambling. Don’t pretend they are making an informed decision. Maybe there are some who think they can data themselves into getting rich, but the vast majority, at best, read one article from a news source they like and take it as gospel.
Just look up some of the giant “failed” predictions these markets have had. That should make it pretty clear they aren’t some sort of a source of truth, at best they are ways for insiders to exploit insider knowledge to make a buck on longshot odds.
https://tomsteyer.substack.com/p/im-on-your-team-forever
Coin flips and dice can get the answer right too, that doesn’t mean they are a source of truth.
It wasn’t a coin flip. He was almost certain to come in third as of 3 days ago, as the prediction markets reflected.