Summary
Secretary of State Marco Rubio grew visibly frustrated during an ABC News interview when questioned about the Trump administrationās approach to Russia.
Defending Trumpās push for peace talks with Putin, Rubio insisted negotiations were necessary but admitted the administration didnāt know Russiaās demands.
He clashed with host George Stephanopoulos over Trumpās refusal to call Putin a dictator and the U.S. siding with Russia in a recent UN vote.
Rubio also compared Trumpās handling of Ukraine to Bidenās approach to Israel, further escalating tensions.
What would be the best way for that to happen? More specifically, how can we pull this off safely?
We have very little historical precedent to go on. The USSR collapsed in 1991. There was some nervousness around what was going to happen with all their nukes. Ultimately, we ended up with Russia, led by Putin.
How would we stop Putin from triggering nuclear retaliation?
If we stop that, how do we make sure some other oligarch doesnāt immediately take his place?
If Russia were to completely collapse, what would happen to Russia? Would we be willing to let China take over? If not would we be willing to maintain an indefinite occupation of Russia?
There may be good answers to all of these questions. It seems the more practical solution is to contain Russia. Do you think the EU would be ready to adopt a constitution if it came up again?
Russian federal subjects would semi-autonomously be their own countries. Falling under supervision of the UN and neighbouring countries
But that is on the US and China agreeing to it when currently both are against that
It does give China potentially direct control over some resources they would want but they already can get those without weakening their position
I can see why this would be a good outcome for Europe.
It essentially turns Russia into a puppet state. If we were to eliminate China and the US, that would make Russia Europeās puppet state. While it has some obvious advantages to Europe, itās clearly not in the interest of either Putin or Russia (the most pessimistic estimates put his approval rating at over 60% among Russians).
Since itās obviously not to their advantage they wonāt agree to it. That means someone would have to force them to accept that new status quo. The US just dropped all support and China has made it pretty clear that theyāre not going to participate in any operation like that either.
So that leaves the EU. Iāll circle back to my earlier question. Do you think the EU is ready to adopt and ratify a constitution if it came up again? Absent that, do you think the EU can put together a military coalition thatās big enough and permanent enough to induce an immediate surrender by Russia? If not, do you think that the EU is willing and able to wage a protracted direct war against Russia?
It canāt be supervised by itās neighbours if the two biggest neighbours arenāt apart of it
If the US and China abandon Ukraine WW3 will happen so to pretend thereās a safe way out of it is unreasonable
The US will look to Canada
Russia will look to Germany
China will look to Taiwan
I donāt know if any of your predictions are true. They might be, but I donāt have nearly enough evidence to be confident in any of them.
If they are, I donāt see how the complete collapse of Russia is even remotely feasible. Those predictions add up to saying that none of the necessary pre-conditions have been or will be met. Together, they say that we have no way to coerce Russia into the desired state and we have no way to re-align their interest to get them to do so voluntarily.
China definitely wonāt swoop in to defend Ukraine against Russia. I think we can agree on that. Itās pretty clear the US wonāt either. I think we can agree on that too.
Thatās why Iām wondering if you think the EU can get big enough to do so on itās own, and do so quickly.
i do not know if Europe can do it unfortunately
I am thankful that Europe knows enough about 2 front wars to not give up on us in Canada
Britain and France being nuclear powers and Germany having strong manufacturing may pose enough of a risk that they avoid a hot war and continue disinformation efforts