We’re past this point of a “recession”. Our economy for the foreseeable future is, without a shadow of a doubt, fucked beyond belief. Our trade partners are gone, no one trusts us anymore because we somehow managed to elect the literal worst person for the job, TWICE. Whatever ends up happening to this country, I hope I can get out before I’m not allowed to get out.
The sad reality is that, for the vast majority of people, that window closed a long time ago. Very few countries are willing to accept the number of Americans that want to leave. Even fewer are the types of countries that most Americans would want to move to.
We’re not. The economy has stubbornly grown since the COVID rebound. That’s what is so staggering.
And its not the Jobless Recovery of 2002, either. Unemployment remains low. There’s upward wage pressure from all the retirements. We keep building out more capital and demanding more hours of work, domestically.
What very likely will fuck us short term is the massive supply chain distribution from Trump’s fickle on-again / off-again tariffs.
What will fuck us long term is the rest of the global economy decoupling from the US, as we stop operating reliably as a consumer of last resort.
Our trade partners are gone, no one trusts us anymore because we somehow managed to elect the literal worst person for the job, TWICE.
They aren’t gone. This is potentially a short term disruption. It can still be papered over.
But we’re going to see some amount of international supply chain rerouting to deal with our unreliability. And we’re going to see Brain Drain from our university. And we’re going to see the consequences of that.
But we’re also going to see a bunch of Finance Bros running the economy and trying to pump it. We’re going to see neighbors with Trump politics try to align with us. And we’re going to see more speculation, because that’s how the US has always operated back to the founding days.
How much of the economy is just two rich guys jerking off on each other’s Bitcoin collection remains to be seen. But the Big Number will rise, thanks to the Federal Reserve System and our domestic credit elasticity.
whether or not you want to say a recession has happened, america is done with being an economic super power, and the middle class will not survive if trump serves all 4 years. There will be serfs and oligarchs with no in between. the point of my comment was not about the literal definition of a recession, it is about the greater implication of what the american citizens who voted trump, and did not vote have done to us.
america is done with being an economic super power, and the middle class will not survive if trump serves all 4 years
That’s wildly hyperbolic and flatly untrue.
America’s time as the post-Soviet singular superpower is over. But our enormous web of business, military, and political allies are still here. Many of them are congeling around Trump in anticipation of a new polarization of the world.
Neither is the middle class as an economic cohort going to vanish in a measly four years. The professional managerial class is larger than ever and the demand for professional labor is only growing. Boomer retirement is giving wage earners enormous amounts of clout.
the point of my comment was not about the literal definition of a recession, it is about the greater implication of what the american citizens who voted trump, and did not vote have done to us.
Trump’s hamfisted temper tantrums have fucked supply chains in the short term and bond yields in the mid term. But you’re dismissing trillions in infrastructure and tens of millions of bureaucratic workers who aren’t invested in this regime or who actively oppose it.
We’re past this point of a “recession”. Our economy for the foreseeable future is, without a shadow of a doubt, fucked beyond belief. Our trade partners are gone, no one trusts us anymore because we somehow managed to elect the literal worst person for the job, TWICE. Whatever ends up happening to this country, I hope I can get out before I’m not allowed to get out.
The sad reality is that, for the vast majority of people, that window closed a long time ago. Very few countries are willing to accept the number of Americans that want to leave. Even fewer are the types of countries that most Americans would want to move to.
We’re not. The economy has stubbornly grown since the COVID rebound. That’s what is so staggering.
And its not the Jobless Recovery of 2002, either. Unemployment remains low. There’s upward wage pressure from all the retirements. We keep building out more capital and demanding more hours of work, domestically.
What very likely will fuck us short term is the massive supply chain distribution from Trump’s fickle on-again / off-again tariffs.
What will fuck us long term is the rest of the global economy decoupling from the US, as we stop operating reliably as a consumer of last resort.
They aren’t gone. This is potentially a short term disruption. It can still be papered over.
But we’re going to see some amount of international supply chain rerouting to deal with our unreliability. And we’re going to see Brain Drain from our university. And we’re going to see the consequences of that.
But we’re also going to see a bunch of Finance Bros running the economy and trying to pump it. We’re going to see neighbors with Trump politics try to align with us. And we’re going to see more speculation, because that’s how the US has always operated back to the founding days.
How much of the economy is just two rich guys jerking off on each other’s Bitcoin collection remains to be seen. But the Big Number will rise, thanks to the Federal Reserve System and our domestic credit elasticity.
whether or not you want to say a recession has happened, america is done with being an economic super power, and the middle class will not survive if trump serves all 4 years. There will be serfs and oligarchs with no in between. the point of my comment was not about the literal definition of a recession, it is about the greater implication of what the american citizens who voted trump, and did not vote have done to us.
That’s wildly hyperbolic and flatly untrue.
America’s time as the post-Soviet singular superpower is over. But our enormous web of business, military, and political allies are still here. Many of them are congeling around Trump in anticipation of a new polarization of the world.
Neither is the middle class as an economic cohort going to vanish in a measly four years. The professional managerial class is larger than ever and the demand for professional labor is only growing. Boomer retirement is giving wage earners enormous amounts of clout.
Trump’s hamfisted temper tantrums have fucked supply chains in the short term and bond yields in the mid term. But you’re dismissing trillions in infrastructure and tens of millions of bureaucratic workers who aren’t invested in this regime or who actively oppose it.
None of this is set in stone.
I’ll remember to come back in 4 years if im still allowed to access the open internet.
Less worried about being allowed to log on and more worried about being allowed to log off.